Analysing the data and predicting future values

dataanalysis

#1

Below is the data i am analyzing as a part of an analytics questions.

Color	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Red	28	42	21	23	29	15	8	4	2	1	0	0
Green				26	39	20	22	28	14	7	4	2
White						43	65	33	36	45	23	12
Brown								58	87	44	48	60
Yellow									37	56	28	31
Black										28	42	21
Orange											19	29
Purple												24
Total	28	42	21	49	68	78	95	123	176	181	164	179

How do you calculate

  1. which color will sell most units in 2014? and how many?
  2. which color will sell most units combined in 2014 to 2016 ? and how many?

#2

Hi @dumkidoo,

A simple approach to solve this problem could be Naive approach. In naive approach we assume that the next expected point is equal to the last observed point. So you can assign the same values to the upcoming years as that of year 2013.
Let’s answer both of your questions now using naive approach:

  1. As Brown color have the highest sales in 2013, it will have the most sales in 2014 too and the sale will be 60.
  2. We will follow the same approach for the year 2015 and 2016. So the combined sale will be the most for brown color and the sale will be 180.

This is the simple approach which can be applied mathematically. You can follow some advanced techniques like, moving average, simple exponential smoothing, etc. to get better results. To learn about these techniques you can follow this article: