Forecasting / Predicting internet usage over time

forecasting

#1

Hi All,

I am working on a problem. The scenario is that i have internet usage data for 4 years(in terms of percentage) and i need to predict the internet usage for the 5th year. I do not have any other variables. Can someone suggest the best modelling technique to use given that i have no other variables.

Thanks and Regards,
Poorna Ramakrishnan


#2

This looks like a classic time series problem - if you get absolute volume instead of percentages.

The problem with percentage is that you are trying to adjust for 2 factors - changes in internet penetration as well as the traffic patterns. You will likely find it difficult to build a good model on percentages.

You can try ARMA or ARIMA models, once you have the absolute numbers with you.

Hope this helps.
Kunal