I want to create a model to predict election outcomes in a multi-party elections. I want to do so at each constituency. We have the following variables:
- Outcomes in the constituency for last 5 elections
- Demographics of the candidates who contested the elections from these constituency
- Social media sentiments through twitter
- Relative presence of the candidates on the social media (vs. other candidates from same constituency)
- Share of Voice and some indicators on the spend in the run up to elections
- Average demographics of people in the constituency (e.g. Age, Income, family size)
We want to predict the percent votes received by each of these parties. Since this is not a bi-party system, we can not use Logistic regression.
What should be the right modeling technique to make these predictions?