Bowlers wins you test matches
Batsmen wins you ODI’s.
Just look at the No. of Man of the match awarded to the bowlers\batsmen’s in tests and odi’s
India Vs Pakistan match is in Adelaide. It is the flattest pitch in Australia with small square boundaries. Most of the top scoring matches in Australia has been in Adelaide only. With India scoring 323 in just 40 overs against srilanka .At the same time ,Adelaide is the only pitch in Australia which supports spin bowling due to the dry nature of the wicket .
We need dummy variable as per the pitch whether its dry or flat. Based on the that the dynamics of the game will change and so does the possibility of bowler winning a man of the match in case of dry picth and batsmen in case of flat pitch.
But seeing last two warm up games in Adelaide where the first batting team scored more than 350 runs.
I think we will see the flattest of pitches in Adelaide.In that case batsmen has a chance of getting a MOM award. More importantly for a bowler to get a man of the award in ODI’s he has to take atleast 3-4 wickets giving away just 30-40 runs, which I don’t see Indian bowlers doing,apart from R.Ashwin (seeing their recent performance in Australia)
99% of the MOM are awarded to the winning team players(I can only remember neil Johnson getting MOM for Zimbabwe against southafrica in 1999 worldcup, even though Zimbabwe lost that match.)
India will win the match.Currenlty India has much better batting unit than Pakistan.Pakistan team has been plagued by injuries, their main bowlers ajmal, umar gul, haffez are missing in this worldcup due to various reasons.
They cant contain Indian battling line up with less than 270 with their current bowling lineup.
For that to happen ,one of the top four India bastmen will score more than 75 runs. Virat kohli has been the best bastmen in the last two years.He has not scored in the last five odi’s in Australia.But virat kohli scores a century every 6 innings.If we go by the law of averages in cricket. Kohli is due for a big score.
If India scores more than 250,India will definitely win, Because, pakistan has not chased more than 250 outside subcontinent in last five years(though I don’t have data to back it up).
I don’t see pakistan with the current batting line up scoring more than 250 runs. Apart form misbah ul haq,no one is really reliable in Pakistan team. Younis khan is not at his best in Odi’s in the last few years.(he was dropped out of Pakistan team,couple of times in the last few years).Pakistan has a history of batting collapses in the last few years.Even if they get good starts, they might collapse in the middle overs. They have history of losing all matches against India in worldcups .This will be playing in their minds.Cricket is a mind game as well. In Australia,this will add up to the extra pressure.More over ,India has are more used to the condition in Australia now. In last few years ,India has amuch better track record against Pakistan. India are placed 2nd in ICC odi ranking with Pakistan are below India in the ICC rankings as well. That sums up their performance in the last couple of years.I cant remember,pakistan winning a odi tournament in the last few years against top test palying nations,whereas India has won against australia, westindies, srilanka in India and england in England.
Based on the above logic,I think India will win with virat kohli being the MOM.
Darkhorse for MOM could be R.Ashwin
Sorry, I don’t have data to backup my rational. I would like to here more about it from you all.
So the Man