ICC World Cup 2015 - Predict Man of the Match


#1

Who will be the ‘Man of the Match’ in India vs Pakistan match on 15th February 2015?

Pals, let’s get started with this incredible season of ICC World Cup 2015. Will the history repeat itself in 2015? The countdown has begun. To add to your fun, Analytics Vidhya brings to you this exciting contest where your predictions will be make you win prizes.

Tip to Win: Try to be ‘Logical’. We are looking forward to a blend of numbers & logic in your answer.

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  3. The contest closes on 14th February 2015 at 11:59pm IST.
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#4

#5

@Manish

If I look at the last 12 months batting averages both of team players, Rohit Sharma has the highest batting average of 81.57 and looking at the current form of Rohit, I will go with Rohit Sharma.

    Player                 Averages
RG Sharma                    81.57
Fawad Alam                   69.00 
RA Jadeja                    57.25
V Kohli                      49.18
S Dhawan                     46.05
Haris Sohail                 44.00
AT Rayudu                    41.78

Data referenced from ESPNCRICINFO.COM

Regards,
Mukesh


#6

Hi,
I had a look at the data of the India and Pakistan matches which have been played outside their home country and I found out that the batting average of top three batsmen in last 12 months to be as follows:

Ravindra Jadeja 108
Rohit Sharma 70.33
Farhad Aalam 68

Ravindra jadeja also has a bowling average of 29.85 with an economy rate of 4.54.
However, looking at his fitness and recent form, I would not go with him and would instead choose Rohit Sharma as the suitable candidate for the Man of the Match in India-Pak Match.

Regards
Rahul


#7

Virat Kohali in ICC world cup 2015 on sunday match 15 feb 2015


#8

In the last six one day matches played in Australia, Ajinkya Rahane averages 50.
India Vs Pakistan match is going to be played in Adelaide.
In the two practice matches held in Adelaide against Afghanistan and Australia, Rahane scored 88* & 66 with an average of 77.
He is also a good fielder who can turn a match with his abilities.
Considering current form and being a crucial top order batsman I predict Ajinkya Rahane will be the MOM.


#9

According to me Misbah-ul-Haq will be the MOM.

Reasoning -

  • In cricket top 10 MOM winners are batsmen
  • India always struggles playing away from home and on fast tracks like Australia.There recent loss in test series in Australia and not even qualifying for finals in a tri series against Australia and England suggest there current form. Pakistan have a good bowling attack having some of the finest fast bowlers and winning practice match against England restricting them at 250 is a sign of it.
  • Player from loosing team rarely wins a MOM
  • Misbah current form in practice matches is brilliant, scoring with a average of 79.8 in last 6 matches and 91 unbeaten against England makes him an ideal candidate for MOM.

@kunal : Is it a valid post now?

Regards,
Aayush


#10

@aayushmnit

Please follow through your hypothesis with data rather than keeping them at hypothesis level. For example, if you look at first hypothesis, I would check the stats from may be last world cup or last few ODIs and validate it as well.

Otherwise, your logic is incomplete.

Regards,
Kunal


#11

@sonu

For an eligible entry, you need to explain your logic as well. Otherwise, it will not be considered.

Regards,
Kunal


#12

India and Pakistan have met 5 times in the past with Sachin Tendulkar being the man of match thrice, Navjot Singh Sidhu and Ventakesh Prasad sharing the spoils once each time. Since India won all five times, I expect the trend to continue.

Also all matches were high scoring ones thus favoring the Batsmen to score and win MOM .
So my prediction would be an Indian Batsmen .

I will pinpoint the assessment to single player once I’m through with more numbers crunching.

Ok here is my further assessment . Since I narrowed down to the Indian Batsmen , I looked at following players. My area of interest where those Matches which India played against Pakistan at either Neutral or Away Conditions . I looked at the last 4 years .

The following interesting things came up , India played 6 matches during this period owing to above conditions and won 4 out of 6.

The following players were of Interest to me

MS Dhoni : Performs well under losing , no significant score in winning cause.

RG Sharma Performs decently in both winning and losing .

Virat Kohli Has batting average of 205 runs in winning matches, performs poorly in losing ones.

Ravindra Jadheja Played only 4 matches with a significant contribution in a single match which India lost.

Why did I use this kind of data ?

Sachin averages 55 in winning matches against Pakistan and 33 when losing against Pakistan .
He won the man of match thrice , so someone in Indian Team showing similar improvement in performance against Pakistan is expected to do well .

So according to me Virat Kohli fits the bill, he performs well with bat when India beats Pakistan, which I’m assuming , so he would take the MOM as performing Indian Batsmen.


#13

According to me, the MOM award will go to Virat Kohli. The reasoning is as follows:

  1. India has won all the 5 WC matches played with Pakistan, till now. Though its a mutually exclusive event, I still feel that India has more chances of winning this match.
  2. In ODIs, the top ten cricketers to win man of the match awards, have all been batsmen.
  3. Virat Kohli has been a consistent batsman in ODIs with an average of 51.50 and strike rate of 90.17. He has already hit 21 centuries and 33 half-centuries in ODIs
  4. Match will played on Adelaide, where Virat’s recent performances have been outstanding. He has scored 253 runs (ave.84.33) in three test innings, including two centuries. This is the only venue where he has recorded two Test hundreds.

#14

Bowlers wins you test matches
Batsmen wins you ODI’s.

Just look at the No. of Man of the match awarded to the bowlers\batsmen’s in tests and odi’s

India Vs Pakistan match is in Adelaide. It is the flattest pitch in Australia with small square boundaries. Most of the top scoring matches in Australia has been in Adelaide only. With India scoring 323 in just 40 overs against srilanka .At the same time ,Adelaide is the only pitch in Australia which supports spin bowling due to the dry nature of the wicket .

We need dummy variable as per the pitch whether its dry or flat. Based on the that the dynamics of the game will change and so does the possibility of bowler winning a man of the match in case of dry picth and batsmen in case of flat pitch.

But seeing last two warm up games in Adelaide where the first batting team scored more than 350 runs.

I think we will see the flattest of pitches in Adelaide.In that case batsmen has a chance of getting a MOM award. More importantly for a bowler to get a man of the award in ODI’s he has to take atleast 3-4 wickets giving away just 30-40 runs, which I don’t see Indian bowlers doing,apart from R.Ashwin (seeing their recent performance in Australia)

99% of the MOM are awarded to the winning team players(I can only remember neil Johnson getting MOM for Zimbabwe against southafrica in 1999 worldcup, even though Zimbabwe lost that match.)

India will win the match.Currenlty India has much better batting unit than Pakistan.Pakistan team has been plagued by injuries, their main bowlers ajmal, umar gul, haffez are missing in this worldcup due to various reasons.
They cant contain Indian battling line up with less than 270 with their current bowling lineup.

For that to happen ,one of the top four India bastmen will score more than 75 runs. Virat kohli has been the best bastmen in the last two years.He has not scored in the last five odi’s in Australia.But virat kohli scores a century every 6 innings.If we go by the law of averages in cricket. Kohli is due for a big score.

If India scores more than 250,India will definitely win, Because, pakistan has not chased more than 250 outside subcontinent in last five years(though I don’t have data to back it up).

I don’t see pakistan with the current batting line up scoring more than 250 runs. Apart form misbah ul haq,no one is really reliable in Pakistan team. Younis khan is not at his best in Odi’s in the last few years.(he was dropped out of Pakistan team,couple of times in the last few years).Pakistan has a history of batting collapses in the last few years.Even if they get good starts, they might collapse in the middle overs. They have history of losing all matches against India in worldcups .This will be playing in their minds.Cricket is a mind game as well. In Australia,this will add up to the extra pressure.More over ,India has are more used to the condition in Australia now. In last few years ,India has amuch better track record against Pakistan. India are placed 2nd in ICC odi ranking with Pakistan are below India in the ICC rankings as well. That sums up their performance in the last couple of years.I cant remember,pakistan winning a odi tournament in the last few years against top test palying nations,whereas India has won against australia, westindies, srilanka in India and england in England.

Based on the above logic,I think India will win with virat kohli being the MOM.

Darkhorse for MOM could be R.Ashwin

Sorry, I don’t have data to backup my rational. I would like to here more about it from you all.

So the Man


#20

Hi All,

I have tried to predict the MoM purely on past data and my selection is Shahid Afridi :stuck_out_tongue:

Analysis Steps:

  1. Analysis of MoM selection process for last 2 years in ODI
  2. Analysis of Batting stats on away+neutral venue of the 2 teams
  3. Analysis of Bowling stats on away+neutral venue of the 2 teams
  4. Final analysis and selection

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1B-ReA8LWkfbuN6iSWjpmZNJwI2eB-oOuHqKyIfTAsls/edit?usp=sharing


#21

Dear Participants

Hurray! Finally India Won. :smile:

I would like to sincerely thank all of you to participate in this contest: @mukesh @raysaranya @sushant @gauravkantgoel @abhinavunnam @aayushmnit @rpaularun @sonu @rahul

Hearty congratulations to the participants for giving the right answers: @abhinavunnam @gauravkantgoel @sushant

The winner of this contest will be announced by the end of the day.

Stay Tuned!


#22

#23

@Manish Finally, who is the winner?


#24

@sushant You are also one of the winners. Kindly message your details at our facebook page.
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