Recently I’m assigned the task of allocating quarterly targets of sales people across months. For example, if the target for this quarter is $30,000, I have to spread it over Jul - Sep. My boss doesn’t want the distribution to be linear / even because he believes that productivity in 2nd and 3rd month should be higher than that in 1st month. He talks about logarithmic model. Is this model good for my purpose? I don’t have much knowledge about statistics so kindly advise how it works. And would you pls. suggest other better model if any?
Based on the previous growth patterns & trends, you will be able to predict values using time series analysis. Now over the predicted value, you can top up 10-20% based on overall targets. or use regression to predict values & top up over it.
for detailed time series learnings, check this link. http://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2015/12/complete-tutorial-time-series-modeling/
Hope it helps
Thanks a lot. I’ll check this out~